A Behavioral Theory of Interest Rate Formation

Cover A Behavioral Theory of Interest Rate Formation
A Behavioral Theory of Interest Rate Formation
James Henry Hines
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2 1/14/86 19 fact, are motivated to increase rates under these circumstances. The converse applies when money inventories are high and the intermediary is highly liquid.
The interest rate is adjusted up or down relative to an anchor termed the "underlying interest rate". The underlying interest rate is the rate to which people have become accustomed. It is represented mathematically as an weighted average of past values of the actual interest rate with recent experience weighted most heavily.
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...mpirical support for the formulation exists at two levels of aggregation. Research into the nature of human decision making at the individual level indicates that adjustment and anchoring is a common strategy for making decisions like those involved in interest rate determination. Econometric estimation was used to validate the process at a macroeconomic level of aggregation.
The research reported in this paper can be extended in two directions: one empirical and the other theoretic. Better data can be collected on the reserves and desired reserves of intermediaries.


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