A Quantitative Approach to New Product Decision Making

Cover A Quantitative Approach to New Product Decision Making
A Quantitative Approach to New Product Decision Making
Glen L Urban
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] n Costs per unit of input > ^A > X, > Product i(Mi Requirements m J 1 1) > A P = probability operator TDDP = discounted differential profit I = total investment A = minimum probability for a GO decision G This is called the "P" model and the solution to this model in this example would be point "B". See Figure 7. Point "B" is the farthest radical distance from the probability constraint line and therefore is associated with the highest probability of any of the points in this example. The sol...ution of the decision model depends upon the criterion the businessman chooses to use to determine the "optimum". Perhaps the profit maximization model would be the one most commonly used. When - 30 - this is true, the choice of the points in the GO area is made on the basis of the plotting of the maximum total discounted differential profit (as generated by the dynamic program routine) and the differential uncertainty associated with this program. If the decision maker does not choose profit maximization as the criterion for "optimum", the use of the preference approach or the "P" or "V" chance constrained models would be appropriate and many trial value points would be plotted.

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