A Simple Theory of Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure
A Simple Theory of Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure
Jarrod W Jarrod Whitfield Wilcox
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, ^, . , r (avg. Net income) (1- ^ a „„, . V . Al . 4 „) (1" cash flow less dividends re- payout ratio . , . . ■, . . , r J invested in illiquid assets x = ^standard deviation of [net cash flow less capital expenditures, for illiquid assets and less dividends]. and y = X 1 (assets) - A (liabilities) standard deviation of [net cash flow less capital expenditures for illiquid assets and less dividends] . Comparison with Beaver Ignoring the information content of various components of the rather c...omplex ratio suggested above yields the ratios found by Beaver to have predictive value. There are two major components: the first is x, a measure of the ratio of the observed drift rate to the standard deviation of that drift rate; the other is y, a measure of the ratio of the liquid wealth of the firm to what in some sense is the modal magnitude of setbacks in the drift, which latter we have somewhat crudely measured as the standard deviation of the drift rate. This last point relies on the standard deviation of the drift rate being large in comparison with the mean drift rate.
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