Accuracy of Technical Estimates in Industrial Research Planning

Dennis L Meadows

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'! , . . y y / / H^ ^JL ^ ^^ B^ . 1 . 2 . 3 .^ . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 1. 0 INITIAL ESTIMATE PROBABILITY OF TECHNICAL SUCCESS w^l- 50% Confldenoe Interval for True Probability of Stioo-ess ACCURACY: ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF TECHNICAL SUCCESS 30 PROJECTS, CHEMICAL LABORATORY A Figure 3 -ll»- CO CO M O o to E-i U < O H E-i O 1. 0 • ■ A y . 9 ^/ 1 y •', •', . 8 •'/, y •M . 7 • :•:• y *, ' . 6 ' 'v. / . 5 iii y . 4 ', ' ji; '. •t' . 3 . 2 ■-■ . ••' * • • 1 :•:•: y '•*«* . '!*• v/ y ;•;• •;. ;• I'l"! . **'< . 1 y y vi :•:•: '•*♦' :•:• . 0 r" . «, ,, . •. •. J. ■^^k . 1 . 2 . 3 .^ . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 1. 0 INITIAL ESTIMATE PROBABILITY OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS - 50^ Confidence Interval for True Probability of Suooess ACCURACY: ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS 20 PROJECTS, CHEMICAL LABORATORY A Figure 4 -15- The results tend to confirm the laboratory management's belief that market 13 estimates are less reliable than technical estimates.

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