Appendix to Task Iii the Financial Determinants of the Demand for Housing
Appendix to Task Iii the Financial Determinants of the Demand for Housing
James Russell Kearl
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Maisel, S. J. 'Non-business Construction, " in The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, J. S. Duesenberry et al, eds . , Chicago: Rand McNally 5i Co. , 1965. 53. Maisel, S. J. "A Theory of Fluctuations in Residential Construction Starts, " American Econor. Ic Reviev, 1963, pp. 359-383. Maisel views cyclical behavior in housing as analogous to inventory cycles. There is an underlying demand, a function of household formation and removals from the housing stock, which form ...a relatively stable equilibrium. Forces imbedded in the construction process create fluctuations in vacancies and inventories which cause cycles in starts around the underlying basic demand equilibrium. Starts are influenced by credit through inventories and vacancies rather than through final demand or through changes in household formation. A quarterly model is estimated over the 1950-60 time period by OLS. Later articles extend the estimation period to 1962, then from 1953:2-1967:2. In the Brookings work functions for household formation expenditures and average cost per unit are estimated.
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