Ballistic Missile Defense Hearings Held February 28 And March 14 1996

United States Congress House Committee On Natio

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Universities today are from other countries. Missile designs are well understood. That is an estab- lished technology. Missile components are available on the world market and whole missile systems can be bought and delivered, as in the case of Soviet Scuds to China and several other countries, the North Korea Scuds to Iraq, Chinese M-ll's to Pakistan, Chi- nese CSS-2's to Saudi Arabia and so forth.
Since most of today's ballistic missiles are mobile, training and launching by customer nation c...rews can take place in the missile's country of origin so that the first launch of a missile from a cus- tomer country may occur from that country with little, if any, ad- vanced warning. This is one of the problems in developing intel- ligence indicators and in using observables to anticipate what is going to happen in ballistic missile proliferation.
Here we get into a classic problem of intelligence, Mr. Chairman; that is, the ability to distinguish the absence of evidence from evi- dence of absence that something is taking place.

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