The book Choice And Chance was written by author William Allen Whitworth Here you can read free online of Choice And Chance book, rate and share your impressions in comments. If you don't know what to write, just answer the question: Why is Choice And Chance a good or bad book?
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A gives a true report four times out of five, B three times out of five, and C five times out of seven. If B and C agree in reporting that an experi- ment failed which A reports to have succeeded, what is the chance that the experiment succeeded ? Answer. The chance that the given reports should be made upon the experiment having succeeded is 1422 16 2 ' C 5 X 5 :C 7' r 350' The chance that the given reports should be made on the experiment having failed is 1135 15 255' 7' r 350' The a priori c...hance that in one way or other the given reports should be made is 16 15 31 +, or - . 350 350 ' 350 132 CHANCE. But, a posteriori, this is certain, or the chance is multiplied by -gj- . Hence, also, the chance of each way in which the reports could be made is multiplied , 350 bv si- Therefore, a posteriori, the chance that the experi- ment succeeded is 16 350 16 350 X 31 ' r 81 ' We will conclude this chapter with some illustrations of the principles of probability, drawn from the game of whist.
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