Continuous Time Production Economies Under Incomplete Information I a Separati

Cover Continuous Time Production Economies Under Incomplete Information I a Separati
Continuous Time Production Economies Under Incomplete Information I a Separati
Gerard Gerard Ivan Gennotte
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Q) dZ (III-O. 1) dji = [a(t, q) + A(t, q) ^l^] dt + B (t, q) dZ + B (t. Q) dY (III-O. 2) t z y Dependence on t and q will be omitted in the statement of the theorems unless specifically needed.
22 III-l Conditional distribntion of the eipected retnrns The fundamental theorem of non-linear filtering (theorem 8. 1 in Liptser •nd Shiryayev) characterizes the conditional distribution of nnobservables for a wide class of processes. However, the equations yield the conditional moments as functions of
... conditional moments of an higher order. In particular, one fundamental difficulty is that the conditional expectation depends on the second and third conditional moments. We thus need additional relations between the moments to obtain a closed system.
If the random process [|i, q] is Gaussian, higher order moments are functions of the expectation and variance. We have the classic relation: E(^'| fJ) = 3 E(^l fJ) E(h*| fJ) - 2 [E(nl fJ)i' (III-l. 1) ^which closes the system of equations giving E(|il F^) and E(|i I F^) • This case was first analyzed by Kalman and Bucy and later extended by Liptser and Shiryayev to the conditionally Gaussian' case .


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