Dynamics of Nominal Exchange Rates

Cover Dynamics of Nominal Exchange Rates
Dynamics of Nominal Exchange Rates
Liu, Peter Chi-Wah
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Similar results appear in Ito (1988) . None of the one-month and three-month coefficients in his table 4 is significant if the critical value is obtained from the Dickey and Fuller table. Dominguez (1986) has a stronger evidence to support her results. She rejects the rational expectations hypothesis in an overall sense.
However, her results show that she can only reject the hypothesis using quarterly data, but not the monthly data.
This means that one should be very cautious when interpreting
...the empirical results.
At the moment, the only paper that utilizes survey data and accepts the rational expectations hypothesis is Taylor (1989) . Using individual rather than mean survey data, he cannot reject the null hypothesis of rational expectations because none of the coefficients in his regression is significant. The survey he used is a qualitative data survey, meaning that the data are recorded in a categorical 57 form. In fact, the participants respond to the survey only by answering whether the exchange rates may go up, down or stay the same twelve months hence.


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