Maximizing Predictability in the Stock And Bond Markets

Cover Maximizing Predictability in the Stock And Bond Markets
Maximizing Predictability in the Stock And Bond Markets
Andrew W Andrew Wen Chuan Lo
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In Section 4, we apply these results to monthly stock and bond data from 1947 to 1993, and estimate the MPP for three distinct asset groups: a five-asset group of stocks, bonds, and utilities; an eleven-asset group of sector portfolios; and a ten-asset group of size-sorted portfolios. To correct for the obvious biases imparted by maximizing predictability, we report Monte Carlo results for the statistical inference of the maximal i? 2, s reported in Section 5. To gauge the economic significance... of the MPP, in Section 6 we present three out-of-sample measures of the portfolio's predictability, measures that are not subject to the most obvious kinds of data-snooping biases associated with maximizing predictability. We conclude in Section 7.
2 Motivation An increasingly popular approach to investigating predictability in asset returns is to follow a two-step procedure: (1) construct a linear factor model of returns based on cross-sectional explanatory power, e. G. , factor analysis, principal components decomposition, etc.


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