Negotiating Us Ussr Joint Ventures Enlisting Computer Models As Aids in

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Negotiating Us Ussr Joint Ventures Enlisting Computer Models As Aids in
Dhanesh K Samarasan
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70 High costs < < < 0. 65 Figure 2: A Decision Tree for a Negotiator Considering a Joint Venture 17 Similarly, if the U. S. Negotiators decide not to negotiate the establishment of a joint venture under the circumstances, they can always proceed in their current business plans (the lower branch emanating from the first decision node on the left in Figure 2). These plans, too, involve some risks: costs and sales of their currently manufactured products could be either high or low. Just as before, the expected value of the "Do Not Negotiate" option can be calculated. By comparing the values of the available options — by comparing, that is, the likely outcome of negotiation to the best alternative to a negotiated agreement — the model helps negotiators make decisions that are, arguably, more likely to be optimal than unaided decisions. Optimality in decision analysis is simply the best possible expected value of the objective function. To put it differently, decision analysis prescribes optimal choices on the assumption that the negotiator or decision-maker is a rational maximizer of personal utility (for a more complete exposition of the axioms of decision analysis, see Drake & Keeney, 1978).

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