On the Simulation of Investment Behavior

Cover On the Simulation of Investment Behavior
On the Simulation of Investment Behavior
Geoffrey P E Clarkson
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The model was tested for its ability to predict the actual behavior of the investor by requiring it to select a series of portfolios for an actual set of trust accounts. These accounts were processed both by the investor and the model during the first and third quarters of 1960. The portfolios chosen by the model compared very favorably with those chosen by the investor. As a further test, the decision processes by which the model generated its portfolios were compared with the investor's obser
...ved decision behavior. Though it is not possible to say that the model completely reproduces the observed behavior, the evidence from these tests strongly supports the hypo- thesis that the model explains a considerable portion of the observed invest- 3/ ment behavior. — A model that describes and predicts one institutional investor's port- folio selection process is a long way from becoming a general theory of port- folio selection. But the evidence is there that models can be built that explain and predict, to a considerable level of detail, the decision pro- cesses of human investors.

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