Practical Argumentation

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(2) _Could the observed effect have resulted from any other causethan the one assigned?_ If several possible causes exist, then it is necessary to considerthem all, and show that all the causes except the assigned cause didnot produce the observed effect. If an employer who has been robbeddiscovers that one of his clerks has suddenly come into possession ofa large sum of money, he may surmise that his clerk is a thief. Thisargument is valueless, however, unless he can show that his employeedid
...not receive his newly acquired wealth through inheritance, fortunate investment, or some other reasonable method. But if no otherreason than burglary or embezzlement can explain the presence of thismoney, the argument is very strong.
One might greatly weaken the argument (quoted earlier) which assignedthe cause of the recent prohibition movement in the South to thepresence of the negro by showing that this action was not the resultof the assigned cause, but largely of another cause. He might provethat during the debate in the Georgia Legislature upon the pendingprohibitory bill, the negro was not once mentioned as a reason for theenactment of prohibition; and that the chief arguments in favor ofprohibition were based upon the fact that the saloon element hadformed a political ring in the South and were controlling the electionof sheriffs, mayors, aldermen, and legislators.


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