Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq

Cover Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq
Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq
Alan R Fusfeld
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The first is the tacit assumption that forecasting is similar to the processes of estimation involved in Project DELPHI and the judgmental processes that are justi- fied by the philosophy of the inexact sciences. This is not intuitively ob- vious and nnay result in overjustifying the use of Delphi for future tech- nological developments, which, in turn, may create a sense of overcon- fidence in the forecast results. The other aspect of importance is the establishment of scientific objectivity f...or Delphi forecasts through "al- manac" studies. Given that almanac studies do, in fact, justify the use of Delphi for almanac studies it is again not intuitively obvious that they are adequate tests for forecast studies. (A discussion of the impli- cations of almanac studies results is in a later section. ) It is suggested that users of Delphi forecasts be aware of these tacit assumptions and their implications and should, perhaps, exercise caution in placing too much confidence in the results.

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