School Law Bulletin [serial] 13, 1 (Jan 1982)

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1 per cent in 1 30 units; it will drop by 20 per cent or more in 52 units and by 30 per cent or more in 14 units. Although total ADM is not projected beyond 1990-91, analysis of demographic trends suggests that, despite a recent rise in numbers of births, total school enrollment may continue to decline into the 1990s.
Chart 1 Actual and Projected Average Daily Membership in North Carolina Public Schools 1959-1960 to 1985-86 K-12 \ \ /Grades !-12only\ \ \ ' Actual Projected \ ...,!.,..
, , , , ,... . . , 1969- 1974- The Projections The projections of ADM used in this article are made annually by the North Carolina Department of Public In- struction by means of a cohort-survival model based on the number of births within the state and the retention rates in each grade. Although the projections for individual school units can be improved by analyzing local data more thor- oughly (this has been done by request for some units), the figures reported here are derived from a uniform application of the model in all school units.

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