Simulated Control Groups And the Evaluation of Job Creation Programs
Simulated Control Groups And the Evaluation of Job Creation Programs
Bennett Harrison
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The creation of jobs or — more often — training slots intended for some target group may attract new entrants into the labor force, some of whom may actually get the new jobs. Whether or not this affects the private or social benefits of the program in terms of actual new work created, it will prevent the unemployment rate from declining as much as would have occured in the presence of an inelastic supply of labor. Thus, the value of the official unemployment rate as an indicator of program imp...act is compromised when labor supply is variable. - 9 - experience in the absence of that program is an important parameter in evaluating the net benefits to the enrollee him(or her) self, as well as to those officials in charge of the program (it is not, however, germane to the estimation of net social benefits). We now proceed to an explanation of how we estimated that parameter in connection with our evaluation of the Job Opportunities Program of EDA. The Labor Market Transition Model In the course of our research, we became aware of the job-search-theory- based work at the Urban Institute, specifically the "Inflation and Unemploy- ment Project" directed by Dr.
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