The Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Real Business Cycle Mo
The Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Real Business Cycle Mo
John Donaldson
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462 . 461 . 461 71 = . 9 . 592 . 753 . 742 . 750 . 804 . 844 a = . 25, 3 . 95, Y = -1 71 = . 5 . 402 . 511 . 495 . 490 . 485 . 485 71 = . 9 . 472 . 707 . 727 . 712 . 779 . 858 Thus, on average for this model, investors excess returns today on the ownership of long bonds will, to be a significant degree, be pre- served in the future. In particular, efficiency alone does not require that holding period returns be serially uncorrelated. To ensure such independence would apparently require a more s...pecialized market structure than the one presented here. Indeed, the message of these results is that investors must use such information if they are to earn returns consistent with the level of risk they are bearing. This model suggests that the central characteristic of market efficiency is not that investors are unable to secure and use publicly available information but that in using such information they are unable to earn returns which are unjustified by the corresponding risk. 18 6. Issues of Information A central issue regarding the term structure is the degree to which forward rates approximate future spot rates.
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