The Effects of a Threatening Rumor On a Disaster Stricken Community
The Effects of a Threatening Rumor On a Disaster Stricken Community
Elliott R Danzig
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1 hr. 2 hr. Infinity N A T U R E (Water will strike at time Minimum 3/4 hr. 1-1/2 hr. 3 hr. / Infinity CD 00 CD Summed regret: Summed regret: (time * minimum has probability - 0) FIGURE 3 An analysis of this matrix reveals the following choices an individual will make if he wishes to minimize regret: A. On low ground 73 1. If a finite probability is assigned to inundation in minimum time (row 1), the individual will flee immediately (column 1). 2. If the individual assigns minimum time (row 1) ...a zero probability, he will delay flight for approximately 1/2 hour (dur- ing which time he gathers his possessions and waits for possible dis- confirmation. ) (column 2. ) B. On high ground: He does not flee (column 5). The conditions which were initially stated for rational and homogeneous behavior, as those terms were defined, are fulfilled in the Port Jervis situation: (1) the possibility of the occurrence of this catastrophe had been suggested widely days in advance, (2) there was very little ambiguity about the nature of the disaster; people had de- cided (whether correctly or incorrectly is of no concern) what the destructive range of the water would be, and (3) recent exposure to flood conditions had given people a good deal of information about topological and temporal variables they would have to consider in case of the occurrence of this disaster.
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