The Elements of Speculation

Cover The Elements of Speculation
The Elements of Speculation
Gibson, Thomas, 1868-
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The best barometer of contraction or expan- sion of credits is the percentage of loans to de- posits; but the percentage of specie to loans should be considered in connection with loans and deposits, as a high percentage of loans to deposits might not be serious if the percentage of specie to loans is also high, and vice versa.
It is when the two spread apart; when loans are high and specie low, that the greatest dan- Money. 45 ger exists. It is not always the case that a very low percentage of
... loans to deposits, accom- panied by a high percentage of specie, is en- couraging. This condition may arise from stagnation, as was the case in 1894 and 1895.
During the last ten years we have witnessed two stttck market panics, one in 1903 and one in 1907. Both were indicated by a high con- dition of loans to deposits and a low condition of specie to loans. In the early part of 1903 loans reached 102% of deposits. This was the first time loans had exceeded deposits since 1896. Specie simultaneously fell below 18% of loans.


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