The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems
The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems
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In our eReader you can find the full English version of the book. Read The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems Online - link to read the book on full screen. Our eReader also allows you to upload and read Pdf, Txt, ePub and fb2 books. In the Mini eReder on the page below you can quickly view all pages of the book - Read Book The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems
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S is usually based on equilibrium conditions, behind which lie crucial assumptions about competition, utility maximization, etc. The model is determined by the assumed behavior, but does not represent it explicitly. An example that is particularly relevant to this paper is the 9 concept of "rational expectations, " introduced by Muth in 1961. Broadly speaking, Muth claims that "the market expectation of any relevant variable must represent the best forecast that could be made of that variable, ...on the basis of all the information available at the time of the forecast. " This requires that P* V t+r t = l[p, . +i], where p* is the price expected for time t+1 at time t, and tfP^^. I] is the conditional expectation of P formed using all information about the exogenous and endogenous variables available as of time t. Expectations are considered "rational" in the sense that, on average, people use all available information efficiently; that expectations are Informed predictions of the future and are essentially the same as the prediction of the relevant economic theory; and that if the prediction of the theory were substantially better than the expectations of the firms, profit g Muth, J.
What to read after The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by Gilbert W Gilbert William Low to read onlineMoreLess
To quickly assess the difficulty of the text, read a short excerpt:
S is usually based on equilibrium conditions, behind which lie crucial assumptions about competition, utility maximization, etc. The model is determined by the assumed behavior, but does not represent it explicitly. An example that is particularly relevant to this paper is the 9 concept of "rational expectations, " introduced by Muth in 1961. Broadly speaking, Muth claims that "the market expectation of any relevant variable must represent the best forecast that could be made of that variable, ...on the basis of all the information available at the time of the forecast. " This requires that P* V t+r t = l[p, . +i], where p* is the price expected for time t+1 at time t, and tfP^^. I] is the conditional expectation of P formed using all information about the exogenous and endogenous variables available as of time t. Expectations are considered "rational" in the sense that, on average, people use all available information efficiently; that expectations are Informed predictions of the future and are essentially the same as the prediction of the relevant economic theory; and that if the prediction of the theory were substantially better than the expectations of the firms, profit g Muth, J.
What to read after The Formulation of Expectations in Dynamic Systems?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by Gilbert W Gilbert William Low to read onlineMoreLess
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