The Interaction Between Time Nonseparable Preferences And Time Aggregation

Cover The Interaction Between Time Nonseparable Preferences And Time Aggregation
The Interaction Between Time Nonseparable Preferences And Time Aggregation
John Eaton
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17 quarters using adjusted data. Estimation of a model with just seasonal habit persistence (5--00) results in a log-likelihood value of 140. 61. Testing this restriction against the model with S unrestricted, results in a P-value of 0. 0002 for the likelihood ratio test. Hence there is evidence of an important role for durability in the unadjusted data even at quarterly frequencies that does not exist in seasonally adjusted data.
In sum, the seasonally unadjusted data at quarterly frequencies
...indicates that durability in the goods is important and there is evidence 32 for seasonal habit persistence The model with time-separable preferences does a very poor job in fitting this Quarterly data set. In Section 2, the evidence against the time-additive model came in the form of negative first-order autocorrelation in monthly data. Unfortunately, the Department of Commerce does not publish monthly, seasonally-unadjusted data, which 48 makes the corresponding exercise difficult to perform here.

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