The Mathematical Theory of Probabilities And Its Application to Frequency Curves

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The dis- 55] HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS. 89 tribution of the empirical ratios around the ultimate ratio is by- Lexis called " dispersion. " 55. Historical Development of the Law of Large Numbers. — The first mathematician to investigate the problems we have roughly outlined in the previous paragraphs was the renowned Jacob Bernoulli in the classic, " Ars Conjectandi, " which rightly may be classified as one of the most important contributions on the subject. Bernoulli's rese...arches culminate in the theorem which bears his name and forms the corner-stone of modern mathematical statistics. That Bernoulli fully realized the great practical importance of these investigations is proven by the heading of the fourth part of his book which runs as follows: " Artis Conjectandi Pars Quarta, tradens usum et applicationem praecedentis doctrinae in civilibus et oeconomicis. " It is also here that we first encounter the terms " a priori " and " a pos- teriori " probabilities. Bernoulli's researches were limited to such cases where the a priori probabilities remained constant during the series or the whole sets of series of observations.

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