The Practical Justifiability of Irrational Aversion to Risk
The Practical Justifiability of Irrational Aversion to Risk
Jarrod W Jarrod Whitfield Wilcox
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Until we learn how to more effectively incorporate necessary cognitive limitations in our decision theory, we should slow in extending its norms and methods to the 15 realm of individual decision-making. Where market mechanisms relieve cognitive constraints, we may proceed with a little more confidence, but even there it would be inappropriate to close our eyes to further diffi- culties. What can we, as management scientists, do until more progress is made toward effective theoretical recogniti...on of cognitive limits is made? First, one can concentrate on analyzing situations where large cognitive resources can be concentrated on a domain relatively free of important externalities. Second, when evalaating statistical decision trees where serious externalities are unavoidable, it may be wise to face up to our cognitive limits by incorporating a specific cost or benefit to risk in the analysis . 16 REFERENCES Estes, William K. "Individual Behavior in Uncertain Situations: An Interpretation in Terms of Statistical Association Theory" in Decision Processes, R.
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