The Regulatory Policy Implications of Three Alternative Econometric Supply Model
The Regulatory Policy Implications of Three Alternative Econometric Supply Model
Paul W Macavoy
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The Khazzoom model relates aggregated new discoveries (ND = NDNA + NDA) to the price of gas (PG), the price of oil (PC) and the price of natural gas liquids, (PL). (Since we had no data available for natural gas liquids, this variable had to be omitted from our version of the Khazzoom model. ) The district dummy variables used by Khazzoom were the same as those used in the MacAvoy-Pindyck model, and these include DBA for Louisana South, DB for the Permian producing region, DDC for Kansas, Oklah...oma, and Texas Railroad Com- mission districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 10. We estimated Khazzoom's discovery the equation over the same 18 production districts and /years 1965-1969 as in the 10 M/P model. The resulting equation is given below: ND = -42463 + 1. 647xlO^DDA + 7. 862xlO^DDB + 3. 401x1oSdC (-0. 38) (1. 41) (1. 14) (0. 92) + 1086. 3(PG_ + PG_ )/2 + 10844(PO_ + P0_ )/2 + 0. 685ND_ (0. 23) "- (0. 25) ^ (11. 99) ^ R^ = . 895 S. E. = 1. 23x10^ F = 100. 5 DW = 2. 05 (11) Our version of Khazzoom's extensions and revisions equation is shown below, again using the price of gas, the price of oil, previous new discoveries and lagged extensions plus revisions.
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