The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition
The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition
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(10) t=i One consequence of assumption (a) of section 3 is that the estimates of the various probabiUties are unbiased. If this is the case, then the expected value of the decomposition estimate, given in equation 10, should be equal to the ex- pected value of the direct assessment, which, from equation 6, is or*. If there are systematic sources of error in either assessment process, then the two expected values would not normally be equal.
The error variance of the decomposition estimate is de...noted by Var(a) = c^. Using equation 4, this variance can be written as a linear combination of three components: a^ = Var|^c. 6A+Var|cJl-^'6y + 2Cov[^c«6„c„[l-^6j I j. (11) In the appendix, this expression is shown to be equivalent to: +yc^?^+^nV
What to read after The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by H V Handanhal V Ravinder to read onlineMoreLess
To quickly assess the difficulty of the text, read a short excerpt:
(10) t=i One consequence of assumption (a) of section 3 is that the estimates of the various probabiUties are unbiased. If this is the case, then the expected value of the decomposition estimate, given in equation 10, should be equal to the ex- pected value of the direct assessment, which, from equation 6, is or*. If there are systematic sources of error in either assessment process, then the two expected values would not normally be equal.
The error variance of the decomposition estimate is de...noted by Var(a) = c^. Using equation 4, this variance can be written as a linear combination of three components: a^ = Var|^c. 6A+Var|cJl-^'6y + 2Cov[^c«6„c„[l-^6j I j. (11) In the appendix, this expression is shown to be equivalent to: +yc^?^+^nV
What to read after The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by H V Handanhal V Ravinder to read onlineMoreLess
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