Trade Effects of the Oil Crisis

Cover Trade Effects of the Oil Crisis
Trade Effects of the Oil Crisis
Tamir Agmon
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-. Uan the percentage increase in current income .
dx dy .
^^ ' dP, T dP, T o/g x o/g y ^ g, e '^ •'g. E The trade balance of the oil-exporting countries is nothing other than the difference between total income and total expenditures.
(13) TB = y"^ - X^ e g, e g, e The change in the trade balance will therefore equal dTB dy"^ dx'^ (14) ^ = —Sl^ - — S^ ^^^^ dP, " dP, dP / o/g o/g o/g Assuming that expenditures roughly equal income at the outset, i. E. , TB 0, then T T dTB /dy dx . , ^ ^ d?, dP,
... T dP, T ) ^g, e o/g \ o/g yg^^ o/g Xg^^ dTB From equation (12) we know that ^ >0 when the rise In the price o/g of oil is temporary. The oil-exporting countries can be expected to run a temporary cr<:. de="" balance="" surplus.="" this="" case="" corresponds="" well="" to="" a="" situation="" where="" there="" is="" an="" evenly="" distributed="" surge="" in="" the="" demand="" for="" oil="" due="" temporary="" cause="" such="" as="" bad="" weather.="" it="" does="" not="" however="" correspond="" cartel="" restric-="" tions="" albeit="" on="" export="" of="" oil.="" restricted="" rise="" price="" comes="" about="" result="" fall="" income="" fr="">

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